Minimising bias in an un-masked, pragmatic rct comparing two treatment pathways for glaucoma by the use of decision support software - the light trial experience

ragmatic trials of treatment pathways can require patient awareness of treatment allocation in order to better represent clinical reality, for example when concordance with a treatment has an important effect on outcome. Conversely, masking of treating clinicians to allocation group can be impossible when full clinical assessment requires knowledge of the current treatments, resources do not permit separate teams for treatment and assessment or when such duplication of clinician contact might affect an outcome such as patient experience. The LiGHT trial is a 718 subject multi-centre 6-year NIHR-funded study of two treatment pathways for glaucoma with outcome measures of health related quality of life and cost effectiveness. We aimed to minimise variation in aspects of clinical behaviour that might introduce bias by affecting either of these outcomes

A Unified Approach to the Classical Statistical Analysis of Small Signals

We give a classical confidence belt construction which unifies the treatment of upper confidence limits for null results and two-sided confidence intervals for non-null results. The unified treatment solves a problem (apparently not previously recognized) that the choice of upper limit or two-sided intervals leads to intervals which are not confidence intervals if the choice is based on the data. We apply the construction to two related problems which have recently been a battle-ground between classical and Bayesian statistics: Poisson processes with background, and Gaussian errors with a bounded physical region. In contrast with the usual classical construction for upper limits, our construction avoids unphysical confidence intervals. In contrast with some popular Bayesian intervals, our intervals eliminate conservatism (frequentist coverage greater than the stated confidence) in the Gaussian case and reduce it to a level dictated by discreteness in the Poisson case. We generalize the method in order to apply it to analysis of experiments searching for neutrino oscillations. We show that this technique both gives correct coverage and is powerful, while other classical techniques that have been used by neutrino oscillation search experiments fail one or both of these criteria.Comment: 40 pages, 15 figures. Changes 15-Dec-99 to agree more closely with published version. A few small changes, plus the two substantive changes we made in proof back in 1998: 1) The definition of "sensitivity" in Sec. V(C). It was inconsistent with our actual definition in Sec. VI. 2) "Note added in proof" at end of the Conclusio

Improved measurement of the absolute branching fraction of D+→Kˉ0μ+νμD^{+}\rightarrow \bar K^0 \mu^{+}\nu_{\mu}

By analyzing 2.93 fb$^{-1}$ of data collected at $\sqrt s=3.773$ GeV with the BESIII detector, we measure the absolute branching fraction ${\mathcal B}(D^{+}\rightarrow\bar K^0\mu^{+}\nu_{\mu})=(8.72 \pm 0.07_{\rm stat.} \pm 0.18_{\rm sys.})\%$, which is consistent with previous measurements within uncertainties but with significantly improved precision. Combining the Particle Data Group values of ${\mathcal B}(D^0\to K^-\mu^+\nu_\mu)$, ${\mathcal B}(D^{+}\rightarrow\bar K^0 e^{+}\nu_{e})$, and the lifetimes of the $D^0$ and $D^+$ mesons with the value of ${\mathcal B}(D^{+}\rightarrow\bar K^0 \mu^{+}\nu_{\mu})$ measured in this work, we determine the following ratios of partial widths: $\Gamma(D^0\to K^-\mu^+\nu_\mu)/\Gamma(D^{+}\rightarrow\bar K^0\mu^{+}\nu_{\mu})=0.963\pm0.044$ and $\Gamma(D^{+}\rightarrow\bar K^0 \mu^{+}\nu_{\mu})/\Gamma(D^{+}\rightarrow\bar K^0 e^{+}\nu_{e})=0.988\pm0.033$.Comment: 9 pages; 8 figure

The NANOGrav Nine-year Data Set:Limits on the Isotropic Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background

We compute upper limits on the nanohertz-frequency isotropic stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB) using the 9 year data set from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) collaboration. Well-tested Bayesian techniques are used to set upper limits on the dimensionless strain amplitude (at a frequency of 1 yr(-1)) for a GWB from supermassive black hole binaries of A(gw) <1.5 x 10(-15). We also parameterize the GWB spectrum with a broken power-law model by placing priors on the strain amplitude derived from simulations of Sesana and McWilliams et al. Using Bayesian model selection we find that the data favor a broken power law to a pure power law with odds ratios of 2.2 and 22 to one for the Sesana and McWilliams prior models, respectively. Using the broken power-law analysis we construct posterior distributions on environmental factors that drive the binary to the GW-driven regime including the stellar mass density for stellar-scattering, mass accretion rate for circumbinary disk interaction, and orbital eccentricity for eccentric binaries, marking the first time that the shape of the GWB spectrum has been used to make astrophysical inferences. Returning to a power-law model, we place stringent limits on the energy density of relic GWs, Omega(gw) (f)h(2) <4.2 x 10(-10). Our limit on the cosmic string GWB, Omega(gw) (f)h(2) <2.2 x 10(-10), translates to a conservative limit on the cosmic string tension with G mu <3.3 x 10(-8), a factor of four better than the joint Planck and high-l cosmic microwave background data from other experiments

A note on comonotonicity and positivity of the control components of decoupled quadratic FBSDE

In this small note we are concerned with the solution of Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (FBSDE) with drivers that grow quadratically in the control component (quadratic growth FBSDE or qgFBSDE). The main theorem is a comparison result that allows comparing componentwise the signs of the control processes of two different qgFBSDE. As a byproduct one obtains conditions that allow establishing the positivity of the control process.Comment: accepted for publicatio

Search for New Physics with Jets and Missing Transverse Momentum in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

A search for new physics is presented based on an event signature of at least three jets accompanied by large missing transverse momentum, using a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36 inverse picobarns collected in proton--proton collisions at sqrt(s)=7 TeV with the CMS detector at the LHC. No excess of events is observed above the expected standard model backgrounds, which are all estimated from the data. Exclusion limits are presented for the constrained minimal supersymmetric extension of the standard model. Cross section limits are also presented using simplified models with new particles decaying to an undetected particle and one or two jets

Measurement of the flavour composition of dijet events in pp collisions at root s=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper describes a measurement of the flavour composition of dijet events produced in pp collisions at &#8730;s=7 TeV using the ATLAS detector. The measurement uses the full 2010 data sample, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 39 pb−1. Six possible combinations of light, charm and bottom jets are identified in the dijet events, where the jet flavour is defined by the presence of bottom, charm or solely light flavour hadrons in the jet. Kinematic variables, based on the properties of displaced decay vertices and optimised for jet flavour identification, are used in a multidimensional template fit to measure the fractions of these dijet flavour states as functions of the leading jet transverse momentum in the range 40 GeV to 500 GeV and jet rapidity |y|&#60;2.1. The fit results agree with the predictions of leading- and next-to-leading-order calculations, with the exception of the dijet fraction composed of bottom and light flavour jets, which is underestimated by all models at large transverse jet momenta. The ability to identify jets containing two b-hadrons, originating from e.g. gluon splitting, is demonstrated. The difference between bottom jet production rates in leading and subleading jets is consistent with the next-to-leading-order predictions

Search for direct production of charginos and neutralinos in events with three leptons and missing transverse momentum in √s = 8 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with three leptons and missing transverse momentum is presented. The analysis is based on 20.3 fb−1 of s√ = 8 TeV proton-proton collision data delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded with the ATLAS detector. Observations are consistent with the Standard Model expectations and limits are set in R-parity-conserving phenomenological Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Models and in simplified supersymmetric models, significantly extending previous results. For simplified supersymmetric models of direct chargino (χ˜±1) and next-to-lightest neutralino (χ˜02) production with decays to lightest neutralino (χ˜01) via either all three generations of sleptons, staus only, gauge bosons, or Higgs bosons, (χ˜±1) and (χ˜02) masses are excluded up to 700 GeV, 380 GeV, 345 GeV, or 148 GeV respectively, for a massless (χ˜01